Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: $ADM) delivered a quarter that looked better on the surface than it felt underneath. Earnings topped estimates, but a sharp revenue miss and cautious guidance reminded investors that the ag giant is still battling weak trade flows and policy headwinds.
Shares wobbled following the report as Wall Street zeroed in on the top line, not the profit beat. Here is a deep dive into the Q4 and full-year results.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Q4 Results Show Profit Discipline
For the fourth quarter of 2025, ADM reported revenue of $18.56 billion, down 13.7% year over year and far below expectations north of $21 billion. A a roughly $2.7 billion shortfall, one of the company’s bigger misses in recent memory.
Adjusted earnings came in at $0.87 per share, ahead of consensus estimates around $0.80–$0.84. Operating margin held steady at 2.6%, suggesting management controlled costs even as sales weakened. Overall, ADM executed internally, but the external environment did not cooperate.
Management pointed to volatile global trade conditions and continued uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy, both of which weighed on volumes and pricing.
Ag Services and Crushing Take the Hit
The softness was most visible in ADM’s core Ag Services & Oilseeds segment, historically its profit engine. Segment operating profit fell 31%, with the crushing business plunging 69%. Weaker crush margins across North and South America more than offset higher volumes, while soybean exports from North America slowed. Lower refining margins and softer fuel demand tied to delayed biofuel policy clarity added pressure.
Carbohydrate Solutions held up better but still slipped. Starches and sweeteners demand weakened globally and higher corn costs weighed on margins. One bright spot emerged in ethanol, where stronger industry conditions helped Vantage Corn Processors post a sharp improvement.
Nutrition delivered mixed results. Fourth-quarter profit dipped, partly due to the absence of insurance-related gains that boosted last year’s numbers, but full-year performance improved modestly as flavors and specialty ingredients recovered.
Cash Flow Strength Supports the Dividend Story
Even with softer earnings, ADM’s cash profile remains intact. The company generated $5.5 billion in operating cash flow for the year and continued returning capital to shareholders.
Management raised the quarterly dividend 2% to $0.52 per share, marking 53 consecutive years of dividend growth. At current prices, the yield sits near 3%, which keeps ADM attractive for income-focused investors.
This dividend consistency is one of the strongest arguments in the bull case. Few consumer staples names match that track record.
2026 Outlook Hinges on Policy Clarity
Looking ahead, ADM guided for 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.60 to $4.25. That wide range tells the story. The low end assumes continued delays in U.S. biofuel policy and flat crush margins. The high end assumes improving margins, stronger demand, and better manufacturing efficiency.
Overall, much of ADM’s near-term performance depends on factors outside its control. Until policymakers provide clarity, visibility remains limited.
Market Performance And Analysts’ Forecast
Following the Q4 results, $ADM shares remained unchanged for most of Tuesday, February 3, 2026, fallingg 0.25% to $67.93 as of 3:32 PM in NY. Year to date, the stock is up 18.32%. while over the past six months, it has risen 26.31%. over the past 52 weeks, the stock price has risen 35.99%.
That uncertainty is keeping analysts cautious. Analysts give the stock, a consensus moderate sell rating, with average price targets sitting below current trading levels. The analysts forecast an average price of $57, 15.32% downside based on the last closing price. They forecast a wide range of price targets, with a high of $61, and a low of $50.
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland A Buy in 2026?
ADM did not break, but it did not impress either. The quarter showed a company that can protect profits but cannot fully escape weak demand and policy-driven headwinds. Revenue trends remain soft, margins are thin, and growth depends heavily on a rebound in crush spreads and biofuel incentives.
For now, ADM looks more like a steady income play than a breakout growth story. Dividend investors may stay patient, but traders likely want clearer catalysts before turning bullish. Until trade flows normalize and biofuel policy firms up, expect the stock to grind rather than sprint.
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