American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: $AAL) released its Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results on Tuesday, January 27, 2026. The company reported a massive EPS miss amid record revenue. Here is a deep dive into those results.
American Airlines Q4FY25 Results
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, American Airlines reported an adjusted EPS of $0.16, below analysts’ estimates of $0.38. The company reported a 2.5% YoY rise in revenue to a record $14 billion, in line with estimates of $14.04 billion. Its full-year revenue came in at $54.6 billion.
It reported an operating margin of 3.2%, down from the 8.3% reported in the same quarter the previous year. The company’s free cash flow was -$1.9 billion, compared to -$342 million last year. It reported 61.9 billion revenue passenger miles, a 920 million increase from last year.
The company reported a full-year adjusted EPS of $0.36, a massive decline from what it reported last year. It attributed this decline to the government shutdown, which lasted 43 days in 2025. According to the company, the shutdown costs it $325 million in potential revenue.
Other Highlights
The company reported operating expenses of $13.55 billion in Q4, compared to $12.53 billion last year. Its full-year operating costs came in at $53.17 billion, compared to $51.60 billion last year.
The company’s major operating costs were salaries, wages, and benefits, which accounted for $17.6 billion of the costs. Its other major source of costs was fuel, which accounted for $10.7 billion in costs. In fiscal 2025, the company reported that it reduced its total debt by $2.1 billion.
Commenting on the results, CEO Robert Isom stated, “We have built a strong foundation, and we look forward to taking advantage of the investments we have made in our customer experience, network, fleet, partnerships, and loyalty program.”
American Airlines Fiscal 2026 Outlook
For fiscal 2026, the company expects an adjusted EPS of $170 to $2.70, a massive improvement from the fiscal 2025 figure at the midpoint. It expects full-year cash flow of over $2 billion. This guidance is more bullish than analysts’ forecast of $59.21 billion in full-year revenue and an EPS of $1.99.
Market Performance
Following the earnings miss, AAL shares dipped 3.40% to $14.07 as of 11:31 AM in New York. Year to date, the stock is down 8.19%, while over the past six months, the stock has gained 23.39%. Over the past 52 weeks, AAL shares have dipped 18.17%.
The current price is below the 50-day moving average of $14.73, and above the 200-day moving average of $12.52. Analysts remain optimistic about the future price action of AAL, giving it a moderate buy rating. They forecast a wide range of prices, with a high of $21 and a low of $11. The analysts forecast an average price of $17.70, which is a 21.46% upside based on the last closing price.
Is American Airlines A Buy In 2026?
American Airlines could be a great buy for long-term investors and those seeking out a turnaround story. For one, it trades at a significant discount compared to competitors, especially with free cash flow forecast to grow in fiscal 2026. It also has one of the youngest fleets amongst US legacy carriers.
On the downside, it has higher debt levels compared to the competition. Additionally, it stopped declaring dividends in 2020. As such, the analysts’ moderate buy rating could potentially reflect the long-term trends for AAL.
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