Allied Gold Corporation (TSX: $AAUC | NYSE: $AAUC) has become one of the more closely watched gold names in the market after a powerful run in its U.S.-listed shares and a major takeover agreement that could reshape the investment case. For U.S. investors focused on NYSE:AAUC, the story is no longer just about gold production growth across Africa. It is now also about whether the proposed cash acquisition by Zijin Gold International leaves any meaningful upside on the table.
Latest News
The biggest recent catalyst is Allied Gold’s proposed arrangement with Zijin Gold International. In January, Allied announced a friendly all-cash deal under which Zijin Gold agreed to acquire all outstanding shares for C$44.00 per share, valuing the company at about C$5.5 billion. That transaction moved forward again in March when Allied said it had filed and mailed its management information circular and related proxy materials for the special shareholder meeting. The company has said the transaction is expected to close by late April 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Momentum behind the deal strengthened further on March 19, when Allied said both ISS and Glass Lewis recommended that shareholders vote in favor of the arrangement resolution. Allied’s board has also unanimously recommended the transaction, and directors and officers representing roughly 15.4% of the outstanding shares have agreed to support it. The special meeting is scheduled for March 31, 2026, with the proxy voting deadline set for March 27.
Market Performance
On March 23, Allied Gold’s U.S.-listed stock was trading around $30.60. The stock opened near $31.05, was trading close to its 50-day moving average of about $30.79, and remained well above its 200-day moving average of $23.15. AAUC is sitting near the upper end of its 12-month range of $8.67 to $32.08, which underlines how strong the re-rating has been.
The Canadian listing tells a similar story. TSX-listed shares are at C$42.66, just below the C$44.00 per-share cash offer from Zijin. That tight spread suggests the market sees a relatively high probability that the deal will be completed, while still leaving a small gap tied to execution and approval risk.
Operating Momentum Beneath the Deal
The takeover headlines have dominated attention, but Allied’s underlying operating story has also improved. In its preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 operating update, the company reported quarterly production of 117,004 ounces and full-year 2025 production of 379,081 ounces, above guidance. Fourth-quarter all-in sustaining costs were estimated at $1,980 per ounce, while year-end cash stood at about $480 million. Those numbers pointed to stronger production, improving margins, and a healthier balance sheet heading into 2026.
Management’s 2026 outlook also showed why Allied had become a growth name before the buyout emerged. The company expects 385,000 to 425,000 ounces from its current producing mines in 2026, plus another 100,000 to 150,000 ounces from the Kurmuk Project, which is expected to begin production in mid-2026. That implies total 2026 production guidance of 485,000 to 575,000 ounces, with 2027 output expected to rise again to 640,000 to 680,000 ounces. Allied also ended 2025 with 11.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves.
Is AAUC Still a Buy in 2026?
The bull case is straightforward. Allied Gold has improving operations, a major new project coming online, rising production guidance, and a takeover price that effectively puts a floor under the stock if the arrangement closes as planned. Institutional interest has also remained visible, with JPMorgan recently disclosed as having increased its stake by 4.2% in the third quarter to about 1.87 million shares.
The harder question is whether fresh buyers are being paid enough for the risk. With the U.S. shares already trading near the implied deal value and the TSX listing close to the C$44 cash offer, much of the obvious upside appears to have already been captured. That means AAUC now looks less like a pure gold momentum play and more like an event-driven trade tied to deal completion.
For investors seeking outsized upside, the stock may now offer limited room unless the market begins pricing in either a higher bid or a material delay in closing. For investors seeking relative stability in a volatile gold space, the pending acquisition makes the name easier to understand, but probably less explosive from here.
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