Gemini (NASDAQ: $GEMI), the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has been struggling significantly since its public debut last September. On March 18, 2026, the company’s stock fell 5.1% to $6.75 in premarket trading, extending its year-to-date decline to 28%. The poor performance reflects deep concerns about slowing user growth, persistent losses, and intensifying competition in a depressed crypto market.
Citi analyst Peter Christiansen downgraded Gemini from Neutral to Sell and slashed the price target from $13 to $5.50. The firm now expects Gemini to post an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $263 million for 2025. This is a sharp revision from previous estimates that had the company reaching positive EBITDA by 2028. Citi now projects losses will continue through at least 2029.
Perspective
Monthly unique visitors to the Gemini app and website have been trending downward since September, according to web data analyzed by Citi. App downloads in February totaled only 41,000, a steep drop from over 100,000 downloads in each of the previous nine months. This declining user direction is particularly concerning for a company still years away from profitability in a highly competitive industry where network effects are critical.
In response to these challenges, Gemini announced last month it would lay off around 25% of its staff and wind down operations in the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company also parted ways with its chief operating, financial, and legal executives. In a blog post announcing the leadership changes, founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss acknowledged the difficulties, writing: “We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down. And we don’t have the demand in these regions to justify them.”
Verdict
Gemini’s post-IPO performance has been disappointing, and the path to profitability now looks much longer and more difficult than initially anticipated. While the Winklevoss twins remain committed to the vision, the combination of declining user metrics, heavy losses, aggressive cost-cutting, and a challenging crypto market environment makes the stock a high-risk proposition. Citi’s downgrade to Sell reflects growing skepticism that Gemini can scale profitably and remain competitive in the near term.
For investors, Gemini currently offers limited near-term upside and substantial downside risk. Unless the company can reverse its user decline and demonstrate a credible path to breakeven, the stock is likely to remain under pressure.
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