In the first week of October 2025, the price of gold (GC=F) surged to over $4,000 an ounce as investors began to look for a safe hedge over rising concerns about the global economy. Gold is currently in its biggest rally since the 70s, rising by over a third since April 2025, when President Trump announced biting tariffs that upset global trade.
Gold: A Traditional Safe Haven
Another factor that has led to a rise in the price of gold is the delays in the release of key economic data due to the US government shutdown. Gold is often seen as a safe haven, and it is expected to continue rising during times of uncertainty. The shutdown of the US government due to budget disagreements has served as an important tailwind for gold prices in recent weeks.
Fears Of Economic Downturn
Recently, the Bank of England (BoE) issued a warning stating that AI firms appeared stretched and could suffer a sharp correction. Recently, stock markets in Europe and the US have risen to record highs on the back of a tech company rally. A sudden correction where they fall more than 10% could trigger a massive selloff.
Gold Rally Continues
On Wednesday, October 15, 2025, the price of spot gold soared to over $4,220 an ounce, hitting a new record. At the same time, silver was trading at $53 per ounce, according to data from Trading Economics. Futures prices, which are a gauge of market sentiment, were trading higher on gold and slightly lower on silver. As of Thursday evening on October 16, 2025, the price of gold was $4,333.50.
What The Future Holds For Gold
Analysts remain optimistic about the future price of gold. They note that even if foreign investors holding US assets move half a percentage point of those into gold, the price could rise to $6,000 per ounce.
While it is making the headlines, other precious metals have also seen a boost in prices. Silver and Platinum futures have risen over 80% and 85% respectively, over the past years. Palladium futures, another popular precious metal, have risen over 75% compared to the 60% increase for gold.
Given the lack of clarity from Trump regarding the long-term plans for a tariff policy, analysts forecast that the price of gold could dip. However, the dip will be bought, and the ongoing dollar weakness will boost prices and lead to new highs in Q1.
After the 2008 market crash, the price of platinum and gold rose 130% and 160% respectively, from 2008 to 2011. During the same period, silver rose by over 400%. The pandemic-driven market fears saw platinum and gold rise 65% and 25% respectively, while silver rose over 90%. The forecast of additional interest rate cuts has also given gold a boost as holding non-yielding assets becomes cheaper.
Analysts’ Forecast for Gold
Forecasts vary, with Citi Research forecasting $3,250. Meanwhile, ANZ, the multinational banking and financial services company, forecasts that gold could average $4,445 in 2026. They forecast $4,400 by the end of 2025, and a rise to $4,600 by June 2026. Meanwhile, Societe Generale forecasts that the price of gold could rise to $5,000 by the end of 2026.
Overall, Jitters of the tech-company-led rally, fear of further tariff wars, the weakening US dollar, and the US government shutdown appear to be the main factors driving the upward movement of gold. In the coming weeks, these will be important factors to keep a close eye on.
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