M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: $MTB) reported its Q1 2025 earnings with a slight miss on analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.38, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.41, resulting in a -0.88% earnings surprise. In Q4 2024, it posted a positive surprise of 5.95%, with EPS of $3.92 against an estimate of $3.70.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.31 billion, missing expectations by 1.59%, although it slightly increased from $2.26 billion a year ago. M&T has topped EPS and revenue estimates in three of the last four quarters.
M&T reported net income of $584 million, rising from $531 million a year earlier. However, the bank lowered its full-year net interest income outlook to $7.05B–$7.15B, from the earlier $7.1B–$7.2B. It now expects a net interest margin in the mid-to-high 3.60s.
Deposits fell 1.7% year-over-year, and M&T cut its 2025 target to $162B–$164B, from $164B–$166B. Loans and leases grew slightly to $134.8 billion, up from $133.8 billion. Provision for credit losses fell by 35% to $130 million.
Operating expenses totaled $1.42 billion, rising 1% from Q1 2024, with seasonal employee costs contributing. Net interest income stood at $1.7 billion, nearly flat compared to $1.68 billion a year ago. This was due in part to two fewer calendar days in the quarter.
The stock closed at $154.30, down 2.19% on the day. Year-to-date, MTB is down 16%, underperforming the S&P 500, which is down 8.8%. Its 52-week range sits between $108.93 and $225.70.
Technical Analysis
M&T Bank’s stock recently bounced off a strong support zone around $155, marked by historical accumulation. The price currently trades at $154.30, slightly below the 200-day moving average of $159.49.
The chart shows a small gap between $170 and $173, created by a sharp drop in price earlier. If the stock breaks above $185, the previous internal structure’s lower high, there could be a potential move towards the previous swing high of $225.
Above that, the stock must reclaim $225, the 52-week high, to resume a full uptrend. Failure to break past $185 could send the price lower. If the current support level does not hold and bearish pressure continues, the next major support lies around $108, where another demand zone sits.
Volume remains average, with no strong bullish or bearish divergence in indicators. The price is currently in a decision zone, suggesting traders are awaiting clearer signals.
Is It The Right Time To Buy M&T Bank (MTB)?
Analysts rated MTB a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) before the earnings release. That suggests a neutral outlook. Following Q1 results, investors await earnings estimate revisions to guide future expectations.
The stock trades near its support zone, which could attract buyers if it holds. However, a break below the $155 zone could trigger a drop to $110 levels.
Current EPS expectations for the next quarter stand at $4.05, with revenues of $2.4 billion. For FY 2025, forecasts sit at $16.22 EPS on $9.67 billion revenue.
Industry-wise, M&T Bank operates in the Banks – Major Regional segment, ranked in the top 30% by Zacks. That reflects moderate strength in the sector. However, M&T also trimmed loan and deposit targets for 2025.
In conclusion, the next key technical test for MTB is whether it holds or loses the $155 support. Earnings growth remains steady, but slower loan growth, deposit contraction, and macro uncertainty weigh on sentiment. Track whether the price holds at the current support zone before deciding to enter.
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