Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) Sinks Then Rebounds After Bigger Than Expected Q4 Loss: Is Moderna Still A Great Investment in 2025?

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA)

Moderna (NASDAQ: $MRNA) posted its fourth-quarter results on Friday, February 14, 2025, beating revenue estimates. However, losses came in higher than expected, causing the stock to decline sharply before rebounding. Here is a breakdown of Moderna’s Q4 results.

Moderna Q4 Fiscal 2024 Results

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Moderna reported revenue of $966 million, beating forecasts of $942.8 million. However, Q4 revenue declined 66% YoY compared to the $2.81 billion in revenue reported in Q4 fiscal 2023.

A majority of its Q4 revenue came from COVID shots, which accounted for $923 million, with RSV shots making up a majority of the remainder at $15 million.

It reported a net loss of $1.12 billion in Q4 fiscal 2024, compared to a $217 million net income in Q4 fiscal 2023. As a result, it had a loss per share of $2.91, higher than the forecast $2.68 loss per share.

Q4 Financial Highlights

For the fourth quarter, Moderna cut the cost of sales by 20% to $739 million. However, the cost of sales as a percentage of net product sales rose to 79% compared to 33% in Q4 fiscal 2023. R&D expenses in the fourth quarter also declined 20% YoY to $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses fell 25% YoY to $351 million.

The company had $9.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of December 31, 2024, a slight increase from the $9.2 billion at the end of September 30, 2024.

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Full Year Fiscal 2024 Financial Results

For the full year, Moderna reported revenue of $3.23 billion, a 53% decline compared to the $6.85 billion reported in fiscal 2023. Total operating expenses declined 35% YoY to $7.18 billion, while the net loss fell 24% YoY to $3.56 billion.

It reported a net loss per share of $9.28 for Fiscal 2024, a 25% decline from the net loss per share of $12.33 in fiscal 2023. The full-year cost of sales declined by 69% YoY to $1.46 billion, which was 47% of net product sales.

The company ended fiscal 2024 with $9.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, a 29% decline compared to the $13 billion reported at the end of fiscal 2023. Moderna attributed the decline to the full-year operating loss.

Fiscal 2025 Outlook

In 2025, Moderna expects revenue of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, with only $200 million of that in the first two quarters of fiscal 2025, reflecting the seasonality of its respiratory business. Despite cost management efforts, the company expects a $6 billion cash position at the end of the fiscal year.

Moderna expects R&D expenses of $4.1 billion in fiscal 2025 as it seeks to diversify its product lineup. It forecasts that those expenses will pay off with up to 10 product approvals by 2027.

Moderna Stock Performance

Following the release of its Q4 results, Moderna (MRNA) shares sank to a low of $29.25 during the trading session. However, the stock eventually regained those losses, closing 3.35% higher at $32.99 per share on Friday, February 14, 2025. The stock has underperformed the market, declining 20.66% YTD, 59.89% in the past six months, and 61.62% in the past year.

Moderna (NASDAQ: $MRNA)
Moderna (NASDAQ: $MRNA)

IS MRNA Still A Good Investment In 2025?

While the headlines do not look great for Moderna in the short term, it is important to keep in mind the long-term pipeline of therapeutics. According to its Q4 earnings report, the company expects to receive up to 10 approvals by 2027.

If you are confident that Moderna can orchestrate a successful turnaround in the next three years, adding MRNA to your portfolio could potentially pay off as part of a long-term investment strategy.

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