Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: $LCID) is an American EV company founded in 2007. It specializes in luxury electric sedans, boasting industry-leading range and efficiency. Lucid aims to capture a market share in the high-end EV space with vehicles like the Air luxury sedan. However, it faces challenges ramping up production and turning a profit.
Lucid Group recently posted disappointing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2023. The electric vehicle company has consistently fallen short of surpassing consensus earnings estimates over the past four quarters.
Lucid Revenue and Deliveries Drop in Quarter
In Q4 2023, Lucid rolled out 2,391 vehicles but delivered only 1,734 units. Revenue declined to $157.2 million from $257.71 million a year ago. The company reported an earnings surprise of -3.57%, with an actual loss per share of $0.28 compared to the expected loss of $0.27.
Lucid reported a $736.9 million loss from operations in Q4 and a net loss of $653.7 million. It ended the quarter with strong liquidity of approximately $4.78 billion.
Lucid Production Ramps, Losses Persist
For 2023, Lucid produced 8,428 vehicles, achieving the higher end of its annual production guidance of 8,000-8,500. Deliveries totaled 6,001 units, generating revenue of $595.3 million.
However, losses continued to mount in 2023. The loss from operations increased 19.5% year-over-year to $3.099 billion. Net loss surged to $2.828 billion compared to $1.304 billion in 2022.
On a per-share basis, the net loss attributable to common shareholders was $1.36 in 2023 versus $1.51 in 2022.
LCID Stock Plunges on Dismal Q4 Results
Lucid’s share price had tumbled 18.92% to $3.00 from the previous day’s close of $3.70 as of 11:03 AM EST on Thursday, February 22. The company’s market cap is $6.886 billion, with 2.29 billion outstanding shares.
Over the past year, LCID has plunged 57.91% compared to a 24.16% gain for the S&P 500. The stock’s 52-week range is $2.54-$9.26, and its current price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $3.69 and $5.37, respectively.
Conservative 2024 Production Guidance
For 2024, Lucid has forecasted the production of approximately 9,000 vehicles, representing an increase from the 8,428 produced in 2023. This prudent guidance aligns production with expected sales and deliveries.
By comparison, Wall Street estimates compiled by Visible Alpha stand much higher at 22,594 units for 2024.
CEO Peter Rawlinson said, “We are entering the next transformational phase of the Lucid vehicle lineup and are laser-focused on growth.”
Chief Financial Officer Gagan Dhingra stated, “I’m excited about the future as Gravity start of production is scheduled for late 2024 and the start of production for our high-volume Midsize platform is scheduled for late 2026.”
Lucid Forecast; Ratings Mostly Hold
Lucid Group retains long-term potential in the EV market despite lackluster recent performance. However, insights from Wall Street analysts over the past three months remain cautious.
The average 12-month price target is $5.00, representing 66.11% upside from the current $3.01 share price. Projections span from a minimum of $1.00 to a maximum of $7.00. Of nine analysts, seven recommend holding LCID, while two advise selling.
Lucid Must Prove Path to Profitability
Lucid posted disappointing Q4 results with growing losses. While the 2024 production outlook has improved, it remains conservative relative to expectations. Analysts foresee limited gains for LCID stock after the recent results. Lucid faces challenges in meeting projections and turning profitable, making its future outlook uncertain.
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