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Why Bitcoin (COIN: $BTC) Fell Below $70K on Monday As Halving Nears

Bitcoin (COIN: $BTC)

Bitcoin (COIN: $BTC) has had a great run since the start of 2024, crossing the $70K mark several times in March. The month of April, thus far, has not kicked off lucratively with the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency tumbling downward.

Bitcoin Falls Below $70K

Bitcoin was trading at around $69,745 per coin as of 8:30 AM in New York, losing around 1.03% of its value in the past 24 hours.

Despite the 1% drop, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable in the past week as the halving nears. Its price is hovering around $70K after some slight movement to over $71K.

At the start of last week, the price rose above $71K briefly after BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets Robert Mtichnick said that Bitcoin was a good way to diversify your portfolio.  

Another driver of the BTC price surge last week was the net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the start of the week, there was $15 million in net positive inflows, with the trend continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday with inflows of $418 million and $243 million, respectively. Since the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs in January, there have been $12.1 billion in recorded inflows.

Over the Easter Holiday, the price of BTC held steady at around $70K. However, it dipped below $70K as volatility picked up days to the halving.

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Crypto Community Bullish on Bitcoin

Despite the slight dip, the crypto world remains largely bullish on Bitcoin. They believe Bitcoin could rise to new highs, driven by the upcoming halving. The halving is expected to occur around April 19, 2024, and is a major reason for the upbeat enthusiasm.

Bitcoin’s halving event occurs once every four years, and sees rewards for network validators slashed by half. Historically, the halving event has been a catalyst for a major bull run in the crypto market.

Why Bitcoin Fell Below $70K

The recent slump below $70K may seem like another market correction is the case. However, the likely reason for the dip is increased market volatility amidst the increased halving hype.

Towards the end of March, Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day realized volatility rose above 60% to 63.76%, beating Ethereum’s volatility by nearly ten percentage points.

That is the highest spread in the past year, according to data from Kaiko. Historical volatility is a measure of the level of price turbulence of a set period.

Another driver of the dip to below $70K is the long Easter Weekend. According to analyst Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro, the long holiday led to reduced liquidity, which might have caused the price to fall.

BTC Price Trend

As of Monday, the price of BTC was around $69,745, losing 1.03% of its value in the past 24 hours. However, the price is up 1.29% in the past seven day, and 145.28% in the past 12 months. The current price is a 5.43% discount on the all-time high price of $73,750.07 achieved on March 14, 2024.

Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD)
Bitcoin (COIN: $BTC)

Bitcoin Price Forecast

BTC is highly volatile and is quite difficult to forecast with a degree of certainty. However, many leading financial analysts forecast the price of BTC could soar to new heights by the end of the decade.

For instance, Standard Chartered recently revised its forecast for Bitcoin from $100K to $150K by the end of 2024. Bernstein, a major investment firm, also raised its 2025 forecast for BTC to $150.

One of the most optimistic forecasts for BTC came from Cathie Woods of Ark Invest. According to Woods, the price of BTC could reach $3.8 million by 2030, representing a 5,300% increase from the current price.

Woods made her prediction at the Bitcoin Investor Day by Reflexivity Research event on March 22. According to Woods, the primary driver of this growth will be the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, pointing to the recent surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows.

However, Woods believes that BTC will only reach its full potential if it becomes a “financial superhighway.” In a report from Ark Invest titled Big Ideas 2023, the investment firm presented eight use cases that could help BTC reach a price of $1.5 million.

Is BTC Worth Buying?

Bitcoin has been hitting new highs since the start of March. However, most analysts are still optimistic about the future price of BTC. For context, all previous BTC highs have been achieved just days after the Bitcoin halving event.

Another catalyst that could propel BTC to a new high is the recent statement by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On March 29, at a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco conference, Powell stated, “There is no reason to think the economy is in a recession or the edge of one (a recession). We are at a place where the economy is strong. The labor market is at a good place.”

Those sentiments could signal an end to Fed rate hikes, freeing up money and allowing bigger inflows to find their way into BTC.

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Disclaimer: This website provides information about cryptocurrency and stock market investments. This website does not provide investment advice and should not be used as a replacement for investment advice from a qualified professional. This website is for educational and informational purposes only. The owner of this website is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advice. You, the reader / viewer, bear responsibility for your own investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment.

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